Final Thoughts on the 2004 Election (And a Couple of Predictions for the Future)
11/04/2004 22:03 Filed in: Politics
Announcement: All candidates, winning or losing, need to pick up your leftover campaign signs by the end of the week...
Left: Bessie proudly wore her "I Voted" sticker on Tuesday. What I can't figure out is how she got to Florida to vote without me knowing about it!
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I made three predictions about Tuesday night's election and I believe they all came true.
1. Bush won. Yes, I know I didn't publish that one, but it was the third prediction, and a number of you emailed or called me to find out what I thought--so you can vouch for me.
2. Voter turnout was extremely high. In fact, it was the highest on record since 1968 (the Humphrey/Nixon race).
3. The race was not nearly as close as the polls were showing. Iowa is the last straggling state to report it, but it looks like their seven electoral votes will go to Bush (not that it matters much at this point). So that makes 286 electoral votes for Bush and 252 for Kerry. Or you can look at it as 53% for Bush and 47% for Kerry. That's a LOT more than the 1% difference, neck and neck races that the pollsters were reporting. Told you so, told you so, told you so. Okay, I'll be fair. The popular vote was slightly closer with 51% voting for Bush and 48% voting for Kerry. Either way, though that's still not as close as what people were reporting even as recently as Election Day, November 2.
Of course, I believe we should go by the popular vote and completely do away with the Electoral College. I don't think the Electoral College is needed in the modern world, and I have yet to hear of a convincing reason why we should keep it. If you disagree, leave a comment below and try to convince me otherwise.
The other surprising thing that came out of this election is that voters' number one concern was moral issues . Exit polls showed that voters were concerned about moral issues in choosing their candidate over issues such as the economy and the war on terror. Further, of those who were most concerned about moral issues, 79% voted for Bush over Kerry.
Funny that Kerry was not associated with moral issues. I'll be the first to admit that Bush is not my "most favorite" president of all time, but Kerry is a total secularist (despite any stories he tells about being an altar boy and going to mass regularly).
If you remember, I wrote in a previous blog about the vote held in Louisiana earlier this year to restrict the definition of marriage through a constitutional amendment to one man and one woman. Despite what you hear about New Orleans, the vote was an overwhelming 80% in favor of keeping a traditional definition of marriage. When I wrote that blog, I said that I wanted to see other states do the same thing because I was convinced that the vote would be similarly overwhelming elsewhere. In Tuesdays election, there were 11 states that had amendment proposals to ban homosexual marriage. I've had a hard time finding one source that put all the totals on this together, so I've compiled my own:
All eleven states passed this. I think most states would. Even states such as Michigan and Oregon which Kerry won voted for an amendment such as this. That tells me that this is not a Democrat vs. Republican issue. This is a common-sense morality issue. Interestingly, Utah's amendment proposal was worded to also exclude polygamous unions.
State amendments such as these are a good stop gap measure, but I believe that ultimately, we need a Constitutional amendment to keep states such as Massachusetts or even California from going against the national flow and redefining marriage on their own.
Moral issues such as homosexuality, abortion, and even the war on terror are important, but if I may add, we need to be careful as a society not to neglect the needy who do still exist for a variety of reasons. For those of you who are Christians, make sure you remember this. Reread passages such as Galatians 2:10 and Matthew 25:31-46 just in case.
Two Predictions for the Future:
1. In 2008, Democrats are going to try to find a candidate not quite so far to the left. Heck, Kerry was so far to the left that he made Clinton look like the moderate he claimed to be. I don't know what that means for Hillary since she is both further to the left than her husband, and like Kerry considered a northeastern elite.
2. Despite a Republican majority in both the House and the Senate, Bush is not going to have the free ride making policy that you might think. There are a number of Republicans who have serious disagreements with Bush. They kept quiet during the elections because they wanted a Republican victory. But the election honeymoon is not going to last long. In fact, by the time you read this, it may be already be over. Expect some resignations on Bush's cabinet and quite a bit more outspoken opposition from among the ranks.
As for the next election, I will vote for the candidate who runs on the promise to take down his or her campaign signs in a timely manner...
______________________________________________________________________________
I made three predictions about Tuesday night's election and I believe they all came true.
1. Bush won. Yes, I know I didn't publish that one, but it was the third prediction, and a number of you emailed or called me to find out what I thought--so you can vouch for me.
2. Voter turnout was extremely high. In fact, it was the highest on record since 1968 (the Humphrey/Nixon race).
3. The race was not nearly as close as the polls were showing. Iowa is the last straggling state to report it, but it looks like their seven electoral votes will go to Bush (not that it matters much at this point). So that makes 286 electoral votes for Bush and 252 for Kerry. Or you can look at it as 53% for Bush and 47% for Kerry. That's a LOT more than the 1% difference, neck and neck races that the pollsters were reporting. Told you so, told you so, told you so. Okay, I'll be fair. The popular vote was slightly closer with 51% voting for Bush and 48% voting for Kerry. Either way, though that's still not as close as what people were reporting even as recently as Election Day, November 2.
Of course, I believe we should go by the popular vote and completely do away with the Electoral College. I don't think the Electoral College is needed in the modern world, and I have yet to hear of a convincing reason why we should keep it. If you disagree, leave a comment below and try to convince me otherwise.
The other surprising thing that came out of this election is that voters' number one concern was moral issues . Exit polls showed that voters were concerned about moral issues in choosing their candidate over issues such as the economy and the war on terror. Further, of those who were most concerned about moral issues, 79% voted for Bush over Kerry.
Funny that Kerry was not associated with moral issues. I'll be the first to admit that Bush is not my "most favorite" president of all time, but Kerry is a total secularist (despite any stories he tells about being an altar boy and going to mass regularly).
If you remember, I wrote in a previous blog about the vote held in Louisiana earlier this year to restrict the definition of marriage through a constitutional amendment to one man and one woman. Despite what you hear about New Orleans, the vote was an overwhelming 80% in favor of keeping a traditional definition of marriage. When I wrote that blog, I said that I wanted to see other states do the same thing because I was convinced that the vote would be similarly overwhelming elsewhere. In Tuesdays election, there were 11 states that had amendment proposals to ban homosexual marriage. I've had a hard time finding one source that put all the totals on this together, so I've compiled my own:
State amendments such as these are a good stop gap measure, but I believe that ultimately, we need a Constitutional amendment to keep states such as Massachusetts or even California from going against the national flow and redefining marriage on their own.
Moral issues such as homosexuality, abortion, and even the war on terror are important, but if I may add, we need to be careful as a society not to neglect the needy who do still exist for a variety of reasons. For those of you who are Christians, make sure you remember this. Reread passages such as Galatians 2:10 and Matthew 25:31-46 just in case.
Two Predictions for the Future:
1. In 2008, Democrats are going to try to find a candidate not quite so far to the left. Heck, Kerry was so far to the left that he made Clinton look like the moderate he claimed to be. I don't know what that means for Hillary since she is both further to the left than her husband, and like Kerry considered a northeastern elite.
2. Despite a Republican majority in both the House and the Senate, Bush is not going to have the free ride making policy that you might think. There are a number of Republicans who have serious disagreements with Bush. They kept quiet during the elections because they wanted a Republican victory. But the election honeymoon is not going to last long. In fact, by the time you read this, it may be already be over. Expect some resignations on Bush's cabinet and quite a bit more outspoken opposition from among the ranks.
As for the next election, I will vote for the candidate who runs on the promise to take down his or her campaign signs in a timely manner...