The Coming Conflict with China
07/23/2005 00:39 Filed in: Politics
Here's what's next after the War on Terror...
You may or may not have heard about the threats that China's General Zhu Chenghu made toward the United States two weeks ago (go to any of the news sites and search for articles with "Chenghu" around July 15 or 16). The reports received mixed coverage by the mainstream media with some barely covering it at all.
In a nutshell, Chenghu said that if the United States was to interfere with China's attempt to reconsolidate (i.e. invade and conquer) Taiwan, they would be forced to use nuclear force to stop us. Further--and you're going to think I'm exaggerating this, but I'm not--Chenghu said that they would fire missiles at hundreds of US cities! That story came out on July 15, and the next day the Chinese government said that Chenghu's statements were his own, not official government policy.
But think about this! Can you imagine if one of our military leaders was going around making statements that we were going to use nuclear force against other countries? He'd be canned immediately. No such reaction from China toward Chenghu. I've no doubt that a Chinese invasion of Tawain is imminent--as in any day over the next few months. And no doubt, Chenghu has been part of strategy sessions where the question has come up as to what the response would be if the United States interferes. I think we'd better take his comments, regardless of the context, pretty seriously.
I don't want to sidetrack into too much history here, but the United States has a fairly unusual relationship with China (or the People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (The Republic of China). The United States has officially recognized the PRC (China mainland) as a nation, but has never recognized the ROC (Taiwan) as a nation since they formally separated themselves from the rest of China in 1949. However, (and here's where it's going to get sticky), American companies have huge economic partnerships with Taiwan (we do with the rest of China as well), and Taiwan has provided relief assistance to the United States in both Afghanistan and Iraq. And I almost hesitate to remind you that China (PRC) is a communist regime, while Taiwan (ROC) is a democracy.
What all this means is that when (notice I didn't say "if") China invades Taiwan the United States is going to be obligated to come to the defense of this nation that it considers an ally (but doesn't officially recognize as an independent nation) against a nation that it officially recognizes as a nation (but doesn't consider an ally). And when you think that just two weeks ago a general in China's army says if the United States interferes (assumption: militarily), they will use nuclear force against us in retaliation, you have a pretty serious setting-up of events!
Heaven forbid that there's ever a World War III, but if there is, look for it to be primarily the United States against China. My fear is that the stage is being set for a major showdown between these two countries that makes the Cold War of the 20th Century with the USSR look like field maneuvers and the current War on Terror as merely boot camp. Regardless, China is set to be the major world power of the current century and by the end of it, could very well be a greater presence than we--the United States--are now.
I had an informal conversation with a world religions professor (it's probably best to leave him anonymous) regarding China ten years ago. In that conversation, he said that it's speculated that China is sitting on the largest untapped oil reserves in the world, biding their time in hopes that another primary fuel source doesn't emerge before the rest of the world runs out. At that point, they could control the world's fuel supply and thus, the world's economy. Think about how frustrated you are paying higher gas prices lately because the Middle Eastern OPEC nations control the cost of crude oil. It could get much, MUCH worse.
This same professor also said that basically, China has never been a key player so far in world events because with their own wars and such a huge population to contend with, they effectively sat out the Industrial Revolution. However, he noted that they are now in the process of catching up overnight. I think they've caught up.
On the positive side of things, if relations with China were to go well over the next few years, there is unlimited opportunity in the areas of trade and foreign relations. A student graduating from high school or college today who takes the time to learn Mandarin Chinese (the most spoken language in the world; English is second) could effectively write his or her own career ticket.
However, if things do not go well, we could be facing an enemy the likes we've never known. With the kind of threats being made by someone up so high in China's military, my fear is this is the direction we're heading. Let's pray that is not the case
You heard it here first...
You may or may not have heard about the threats that China's General Zhu Chenghu made toward the United States two weeks ago (go to any of the news sites and search for articles with "Chenghu" around July 15 or 16). The reports received mixed coverage by the mainstream media with some barely covering it at all.
In a nutshell, Chenghu said that if the United States was to interfere with China's attempt to reconsolidate (i.e. invade and conquer) Taiwan, they would be forced to use nuclear force to stop us. Further--and you're going to think I'm exaggerating this, but I'm not--Chenghu said that they would fire missiles at hundreds of US cities! That story came out on July 15, and the next day the Chinese government said that Chenghu's statements were his own, not official government policy.
But think about this! Can you imagine if one of our military leaders was going around making statements that we were going to use nuclear force against other countries? He'd be canned immediately. No such reaction from China toward Chenghu. I've no doubt that a Chinese invasion of Tawain is imminent--as in any day over the next few months. And no doubt, Chenghu has been part of strategy sessions where the question has come up as to what the response would be if the United States interferes. I think we'd better take his comments, regardless of the context, pretty seriously.
What all this means is that when (notice I didn't say "if") China invades Taiwan the United States is going to be obligated to come to the defense of this nation that it considers an ally (but doesn't officially recognize as an independent nation) against a nation that it officially recognizes as a nation (but doesn't consider an ally). And when you think that just two weeks ago a general in China's army says if the United States interferes (assumption: militarily), they will use nuclear force against us in retaliation, you have a pretty serious setting-up of events!
Heaven forbid that there's ever a World War III, but if there is, look for it to be primarily the United States against China. My fear is that the stage is being set for a major showdown between these two countries that makes the Cold War of the 20th Century with the USSR look like field maneuvers and the current War on Terror as merely boot camp. Regardless, China is set to be the major world power of the current century and by the end of it, could very well be a greater presence than we--the United States--are now.
I had an informal conversation with a world religions professor (it's probably best to leave him anonymous) regarding China ten years ago. In that conversation, he said that it's speculated that China is sitting on the largest untapped oil reserves in the world, biding their time in hopes that another primary fuel source doesn't emerge before the rest of the world runs out. At that point, they could control the world's fuel supply and thus, the world's economy. Think about how frustrated you are paying higher gas prices lately because the Middle Eastern OPEC nations control the cost of crude oil. It could get much, MUCH worse.
This same professor also said that basically, China has never been a key player so far in world events because with their own wars and such a huge population to contend with, they effectively sat out the Industrial Revolution. However, he noted that they are now in the process of catching up overnight. I think they've caught up.
On the positive side of things, if relations with China were to go well over the next few years, there is unlimited opportunity in the areas of trade and foreign relations. A student graduating from high school or college today who takes the time to learn Mandarin Chinese (the most spoken language in the world; English is second) could effectively write his or her own career ticket.
However, if things do not go well, we could be facing an enemy the likes we've never known. With the kind of threats being made by someone up so high in China's military, my fear is this is the direction we're heading. Let's pray that is not the case
You heard it here first...