China replaces US as steadying force in the global economy


China replaces US as steadying force in the global economy

The changing balance of power in the world economy has seen China replace a faltering United States as the biggest contributor to global growth in an “uncertain and potentially difficult period”, reports the International Monetary Fund.

Unveiling its half-yearly forecasts, the IMF said the world was increasingly dependent on the strong performance of the three leading developing countries - China, India and Russia - at a time when the west was struggling to cope with financial market turmoil. The IMF’s world economic outlook said that growth rates of more than 11% in China, 9% in India and almost 8% in Russia meant the three nations “alone accounted for one half of global growth over the past year”.

“Like a forest that has not seen a fire in many years, a benign financial environment had built up a sizeable ‘underbrush’ of risky loans, relaxed lending standards and high leverage in certain areas. When problems ignited in the US sub-prime mortgage market, the fire ‘jumped’ in somewhat surprising ways to other areas.”

Nice turn of phrase. And permits for housing starts dropped another 10% in the last month.

We can look ahead to the Bush Administration and their 19th Century experts guaranteeing that the catchphrase for the 2008 election will be - once again - “It’s the economy, stupid!”

Posted: Thu - October 18, 2007 at 09:40 AM