“The New Middle East”
U.S. dominance in the Middle East has ended,
giving way to a new era in the modern history of the region amid growing
anti-American sentiment. This is the conclusion of a study by Richard N. Haas in
an article titled “The New Middle East”.
Reap the whirlwind!
U.S. dominance in the Middle East has ended, giving way to a new era in the modern history of the region amid growing anti-American sentiment. This is the conclusion of a study by Richard N. Haas in an article titled “The New Middle East”.
Expectations of a peaceful, prosperous and democratic Middle East based on the European model “will not be realized,” says Haas. “Much more likely is the emergence of a new Middle East that will cause great harm to itself, the United States, and the world.”
Haas writes that the most significant factor contributing to the end of this era has been “the Bush administration’s decision to attack Iraq in 2003 and its conduct of the operation and resulting occupation.”
In the Middle East’s new era the United States will be challenged by China, Russia and the European Union. “Iran will be one of the two most powerful states in the region,” says Haas. Iran “is the most powerful external influence in Iraq, and holds considerable sway over both Hamas and Hezbollah.”
Israel, the only country in the region with a nuclear arsenal, still “is in a weaker position today than it was before this summer’s crisis in Lebanon.”
Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other large oil producers will benefit from the rising price of oil, which Haas believes is “far more likely to exceed $100 (per barrel) than it is to fall below $40.”
Haas further predicts “Iraq, traditionally a center of Arab power, will remain messy for years to come, with a weak central government, a divided society, and regular sectarian violence. At worst, it will become a failed state wracked by an all-out civil war that will draw in its neighbors.”
The author of the report cautions U.S. policymakers not to be over reliant on brute military force. He points to two instances where two superior powers — the U.S. in Iraq and Israel in Lebanon — were unable to achieve their objectives. Secondly, cautions Haas, it would be a mistake “to count on the emergence of democracy to pacify the region.”
Creating mature democracies is no easy task, says Haas. If and when the experiment succeeds it takes decades.
I doubt if any of this will satisfy Liberals any more than neo-con reactionaries. Most American politicians believe in Magic Bullets and the John Wayne/Walt Disney theory of history.
Posted: Wed - November 29, 2006 at 09:25 AM