Flu pandemic ‘could kill 81 million’
If a flu virus as deadly as the one that caused
1918 Spanish flu struck today, it could kill as many as 81 million worldwide, a
new study estimates.
Remember previous discussions
about the next flu pandemic? Turns out the mortality estimates were on the low
side.
If a flu virus as deadly as the one that caused 1918 Spanish flu struck today, it could kill as many as 81 million worldwide, a new study estimates.
By applying historical death rates to modern population data, the researchers calculated a death toll of 51 million to 81 million, with a median estimate of 62 million.
That’s surprisingly high, said lead researcher Chris Murray of Harvard University. He’d done the analysis in part because he thought prior claims of 50 million deaths were wildly inflated.
“We expected to end up with a number between 15 and 20 million,” said Murray. “It turns out we were wrong.”
“We know that even if we have much lower numbers of deaths worldwide than in 1918, the world will be severely stressed,” said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, coordinator of WHO’s Global Influenza Programme. “Speculating about the possible numbers is an interesting exercise, but the really important thing is, what do we do about it?“
And that still is the critical question.
If a flu virus as deadly as the one that caused 1918 Spanish flu struck today, it could kill as many as 81 million worldwide, a new study estimates.
By applying historical death rates to modern population data, the researchers calculated a death toll of 51 million to 81 million, with a median estimate of 62 million.
That’s surprisingly high, said lead researcher Chris Murray of Harvard University. He’d done the analysis in part because he thought prior claims of 50 million deaths were wildly inflated.
“We expected to end up with a number between 15 and 20 million,” said Murray. “It turns out we were wrong.”
“We know that even if we have much lower numbers of deaths worldwide than in 1918, the world will be severely stressed,” said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, coordinator of WHO’s Global Influenza Programme. “Speculating about the possible numbers is an interesting exercise, but the really important thing is, what do we do about it?“
And that still is the critical question.
Posted: Fri - December 22, 2006 at 10:54 AM