Human-induced climate change detected at a regional scale
Canadian and British climate scientists have
clearly detected human-induced climate change at a regional scale in Canada,
southern Europe and China. This new research is the first to combine the results
from several climate model simulations, increasing scientific confidence in
these findings.
Canadian and British climate scientists have clearly detected human-induced climate change at a regional scale in Canada, southern Europe and China. This new research is the first to combine the results from several climate model simulations, increasing scientific confidence in these findings. The study…is published in the September issue of the Journal of Climate.
The three regions in the study have experienced rising temperatures during the 20th century. The scientists analyzed temperature measurements from 1900 to 1999, to determine the geographic patterns and timing of this warming, as it changed from decade to decade. The researchers then used computer-based climate models developed at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to simulate the climates over the same time periods.
They found that simulations which include human influences on climate were able to reproduce the patterns and evolution of the observed temperature changes. This indicates that the models can simulate climate change, even at a scale as small as that of a large country, and that natural variability of the climate system alone can not explain the observed warming.
Over the past 10 years, climate scientists have been making steady progress in finding evidence of human-induced climate change. The challenge is to separate the natural fluctuations in climate from those that are caused by human activities. On a global scale, it is easier to detect such small changes in climate, as the natural fluctuations tend to average out for a large area. Scientists are now able to identify the human fingerprint on smaller areas, even at the scale of a single large country.
Researchers attribute this progress to improvements in computer models, faster supercomputer capability, a growing record of historical climate information, and the fact that climate change is now becoming more pronounced.
I realize there are politicians and other sub-species of know-nothings who don’t comprehend what computational analysis is — and how methods and means continually grow in capacity and quality.
This is not the place to seek rationales for doing nothing. All I offer is a point in cyberspace to examine what science offers. The understanding part is your responsibility.
Posted: Fri - September 22, 2006 at 07:04 AM